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The Democrats were divided, and Truman faced considerable problems both at home and abroad so there is little argument that his win in 1948 was unexpected by polls and press but the issue is whether it was totally unexpected. Dewey’s campaign lacked bite; Truman campaigned effectively but more importantly the Fair Deal and the hangover of approval for state action from the New Deal and the War might have led analyists to give more attention to the popular support.\n\nThe case for the result being unexpected is based on polling which consistently showed Truman likely to lose. Truman was not a sophisticated or charismatic figure and had become President only as a result of Roosevelts’ death in 1945. The Democrats were divided between the Southern Dixiecrats and the more progressive PPA. Truman had not managed to get all his plans through Congress, for example a proposal to create a department of Health and Welfare and though conservatives approved of his anti-Communist foreign policy, some liberals were concerned. The Republican Thomas Dewey was a well-respected and articulate businessman who was Governor of New York. The Press was fairly sure that Truman would lose, and the Chicago Daily Tribune prematurely printed an edition proclaiming Truman’s defeat. However, the counter view is that Truman was more popular outside elite circles than was thought. He had proved his ability to take a role on the world stage at Potsdam and to speak for American values in foreign policy. He had implemented several successful reforms by 1948, had shown some progressive policies towards civil rights and had created new departments. He had taken a hard line over strikes which though cost some political support did show that he was prepared to maintain essential services. The rejection of key policies on health, education by Congress was disappointing but showed his concern for ordinary Americans as did the grants for ex-servicemen, house building and priced controls. The New Deal was safe in Truman’s hands. The polling was close with Truman gaining only 49.5% of the popular vote, but his campaign had been characterful and vigorous, and Dewey’s had been rather pallid and over cautious so for many who responded to Truman’s straightforward personality the result may not have been as unexpected as it appeared.", "totalMarks": 30, "answerPoints": [ { "type": "", "point": "\n \n

‘Truman’s victory in 1948 was a totally unexpected result.’ Discuss this view.

The polls showed constantly that the Republicans would win. The Democrats were divided, and Truman faced considerable problems both at home and abroad so there is little argument that his win in 1948 was unexpected by polls and press but the issue is whether it was totally unexpected. Dewey’s campaign lacked bite; Truman campaigned effectively but more importantly the Fair Deal and the hangover of approval for state action from the New Deal and the War might have led analyists to give more attention to the popular support.

The case for the result being unexpected is based on polling which consistently showed Truman likely to lose. Truman was not a sophisticated or charismatic figure and had become President only as a result of Roosevelts’ death in 1945. The Democrats were divided between the Southern Dixiecrats and the more progressive PPA. Truman had not managed to get all his plans through Congress, for example a proposal to create a department of Health and Welfare and though conservatives approved of his anti-Communist foreign policy, some liberals were concerned. The Republican Thomas Dewey was a well-respected and articulate businessman who was Governor of New York. The Press was fairly sure that Truman would lose, and the Chicago Daily Tribune prematurely printed an edition proclaiming Truman’s defeat. However, the counter view is that Truman was more popular outside elite circles than was thought. He had proved his ability to take a role on the world stage at Potsdam and to speak for American values in foreign policy. He had implemented several successful reforms by 1948, had shown some progressive policies towards civil rights and had created new departments. He had taken a hard line over strikes which though cost some political support did show that he was prepared to maintain essential services. The rejection of key policies on health, education by Congress was disappointing but showed his concern for ordinary Americans as did the grants for ex-servicemen, house building and priced controls. The New Deal was safe in Truman’s hands. The polling was close with Truman gaining only 49.5% of the popular vote, but his campaign had been characterful and vigorous, and Dewey’s had been rather pallid and over cautious so for many who responded to Truman’s straightforward personality the result may not have been as unexpected as it appeared.

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